ALL: Sabato's Midwest state rankings
10:38 AM
University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato has released his first "Crystal Ball" look at November's election.
Here's where he places the MidwestPolitics.com family of states:
Illinois: Solid Obama (no real chance for an upset)
Minnesota: Likely Obama (an upset is possible but improbable)
Sabato note: "The only way McCain could steal Minnesota is by picking Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. However, even a McCain-Pawlenty ticket would have a 50-50 chance, at best, of carrying Minnesota. Pawlenty did not secure a majority of the vote in either of his gubernatorial victories (in 2002 and 2006)."
Iowa: Leaning Obama (currently tilting to one side but reversible)
Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin: Toss-ups
Sabato notes: Michigan has a natural Democratic lean. Will the state's voters warm again to the Democrats after the national party refused to count the Wolverine primary in January? Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is also unpopular, and in this state, she may partly balance President Bush's high negatives. ...
* Wisconsin is traditionally close, as it was in both 2000 and 2004. Obama swept the Democratic primary here, though, and he has to be rated at least a slight favorite; some early polls have Obama well ahead. ...
* The great unknown is Ohio, the all-important swing state of 2004. Obama did badly in the primary in the Buckeye State, and Bush carried it in both his presidential runs, though not by much. In 2006, the Democrats swept to power and a bad economy gives Obama a clear shot at these critical 20 electoral votes. It will be difficult for McCain to win without them, but Obama's path to victory does not require Ohio.
Read Sabato's full analysis
